GBI: Composites Fabricating approaches contraction in September
The GBI: Composites Fabricating closed September on the verge of “flat,” a reading the Index has not seen in two years.
Flirting with “flat”. GBI: Composites Fabricating ended September knocking on the door of decelerating growth, the point at which fabricators who say business is looking up is about the same as those who say it is slowing down. Photo Credit, all images: Gardner Business Intelligence
The Gardner Business Index (GBI): Composites Fabricating closed September at 50.7, compared to August’s reading of 52.1. On the verge of “flat,” or little to no growth, the Index has not seen this reading in nearly two years. It has continued to approach the line between expansion and contraction (50) since its almost four-point fall to slowed expansion between March and April of this year. Since then, component activity has steadily decelerated each month.
Contraction action. New orders, production and backlog slipped from decelerating expansion into contraction in September. (This graph is on a three-month moving average.)
The three components, new orders, backlog and production, that managed to barely hang onto their expansionary trend in August started to contract in September. Supplier deliveries lengthened at a continually slowing rate while employment expansion decelerated. Exports contracted at about the same rate in September as August. The consistent slowing within these Index components and across segments lead Gardner Intelligence to believe recession concerns are at play.
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