Boeing: $2.8 trillion commercial plane market over next 20 years

The Boeing Co. (Seattle, Wash.) raised economic eyebrows in on June 13 when it issued a report that forecast a $2.8 trillion market for new commercial airplanes over the next 20 years. The influx, says the planemaker, is the result of strong demand for new airplanes with significantly improved environmental performance. This growth is expected to occur amidst forecasted 5 percent annual increase in passenger traffic, and a 6.1 percent annual increase in air cargo traffic.

The forecast calls for a market of 28,600 new commercial planes (passenger and freighter) by 2026, with more balanced aircraft demand by region. On a delivery-dollar basis, the largest market is expected to be the Asia-Pacific region, with 36 percent of the $2.8 trillion total. North America will make up 26 percent of the delivery dollars, and Europe, Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will make up 25 percent. Deliveries to airlines in Latin America, the Middle East and Africa will represent the remaining 13 percent.

Further, passenger and cargo airlines will take delivery of approximately 3,700 regional jets (less than 90 seats), 17,650 single-aisle planes (90 to 240 seats dual-class), 6,290 twin-aisle airplanes (200 to 400 seats, tri-class), 960 airplanes 747-size or larger (more than 400 seats, tri-class). Combined with retained craft, new deliveries will result in a world commercial fleet of more than 36,400 airplanes by 2026. The fastest growing segment, says Boeing, is expected to be single-aisle craft, thanks mostly to growth of low-cost carriers.