Supply chain challenges persist into the new year

The Composites Index extended its Q4 2020 rally with a January reading of 52.3. For the month, supplier deliveries, new orders and production activity supported the Index’s latest reading while employment, backlog and, in particular, export orders hindered further gains; more specifically, quickening expansion in new orders and production activity was counterbalanced by the worsening contraction in export activity. The supplier deliveries reading was little changed and remains near record levels.

Having moved past the seasonal surge in shipping demand, January’s stubbornly high supplier delivery reading may suggest that network freight capacity was only a minor factor during the fourth quarter’s run-up. Never before in the Index’s history have supplier delivery and production readings been this far apart and for so long. The implications associated with this divergence are considerable, and could extend well beyond undermining production activity’s full potential. In particular, if the trend in expanding new orders persists, the current situation could at best cause backlogs to quickly rise, and at worst result in missed sales opportunities and strained customer relationships.