Clarksons Research projects long-term growth for offshore wind

Source | Clarksons Research

Clarksons Research (London, U.K.) releases a range of data points profiling the offshore wind sector. Reviewing the data, Steve Gordon, managing director of Clarksons Research reports that:

Underlying data points within the offshore wind sector are positive, and the long-term outlook for growth of the sector, remains strong despite the inflationary challenges of recent years.
Today, 76 gigawatts (GW) (+13% year-on-year) of offshore wind capacity is active globally, involving ~13,800 turbines and 327 wind farms.
The leading country by capacity is China (37 GW, 139 farms, ~6,500 turbines), followed by the U.K. (15 GW, 48 farms, ~2,800 turbines) and Germany (8 GW, 29 farms, ~1,600 turbines). There are now 20 countries with active offshore wind capacity, and the company expects this to increase to 32 by 2035.
Clarksons Research is projecting 17% (+11.8 GW)/35% (+29 GW) of growth globally in 2024/2025.

Gordon states that the company forecasts active offshore wind capacity to reach ~450 GW and more than 40,000 turbines globally by 2035, supported by underlying “energy transition” and energy security trends. It projects offshore wind energy to account for between 7-9% of the global energy mix by 2050, as well. Gordon also states that investment in new offshore wind projects has remained positive, with $28 billion having been committed globally in the year to date, following a near-record $58 billion in 2023. This includes a record $33 billion in Europe.

Additionally, European “wind” vessel markets have remained strong through the summer of 2024; day rates for wind turbine installation vessels (WTIV) and “W2W” units were up by ~25-35% y-o-y across the peak season, and the outlook for both markets appears positive.

Clarksons Research estimates that $4.6/$2.4 billion has been committed for new buildings in 2023 and 2024 (including ~$1.5 billion/$980 million for C/SOVs and ~$940/$420 million for cable layers), including orders for dual fuel methanol and hydrogen vessels.