Report forecasts record U.S. wind turbine installations for 2022

As published in North American Windpower, the S&P Global Market Intelligence 2022 Electric, Natural Gas and Water Utilities Outlook Report is forecasting record levels of wind turbines to be installed in 2022. “It’s going to be a record year for renewable energy development in the U.S. in 2022, with 44 gigawatts [GW] of solar and 27 GW of wind power set to be installed alongside more than 8 GW of battery storage,” explains Richard Sansom, head of commodities research at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

According to the carbon fiber market overview presented by Tony Roberts (AJR Composites) and Dan Pichler (CarbConsult) at last week’s Carbon Fiber conference (Nov. 9-11, Salt Lake City, Utah, U.S.), wind turbine installations could consume 28,000 metric tons of carbon fiber in 2021 and reach 54,000 metric tons by 2026 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%.

This increase in carbon fiber follows the increase in wind turbine blade length. According to an April 2021 article by Jean Thilmany for ASME.org, the average blade length 10 years ago was 30-40 meters (115 feet), but is now twice that. Average blade length is projected to further increase as repowering takes place in onshore turbines and as the offshore market increases its share of overall turbine installations.

Four years ago, offshore installations were 7- and 8-megawatt (MW) turbines with 70- to 90-meter-long blades. Now, however, GE’s (Paris, France) Haliade-X turbines, rated at 12 to 14 MW with 107-meter-long blades and Vestas’ 15 MW turbines with 115.5-meter-long blades are being tested, certified and readied for global installations. Experts say this transition is happening much more quickly than expected. (Read the BBC’s article, “Why giant turbines are pushing the limits of possibility.”)

The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC, Brussels, Belgium), in its Global Wind Report 2021, expects offshore wind’s market share to increase from 6.5% today to 21% by 2025:

The CAGR for onshore wind in the next five years is 0.3% and GWEC expects annual installation of 79.8 GW. In total, 399 GW is likely to be built in 2021-2025.

The CAGR for offshore wind in the next five years is 31.5%. Annual installations are likely to quadruple by 2025 from 6.1 GW in 2020, bringing offshore’s market share in global new installations from today’s 6.5% to 21% by 2025. In total, more than 70 GW offshore is expected to be added worldwide in 2021-2025.

GWEC Market Intelligence expects that over 469 GW of new turbine capacity will be added in the next five years.